"Who Will Blow Up/Dominate in 2017" Predictions

[ding73ding]

Predicting who will break out is crazy difficult. Used to be big tits is pretty strong asset, or celeb status, now no long guarantees. Other factors such as "good performer" is even harder to predict success.

So... actually, from one year ago, did anyone picked even one winner?

 

[Supmop]

Predicting who will break out is crazy difficult. Used to be big tits is pretty strong asset, or celeb status, now no long guarantees. Other factors such as "good performer" is even harder to predict success.

So... actually, from one year ago, did anyone picked even one winner?

I agree for this year is crazy difficult, but for last 2 years was more easy, some girls was very dominan with their tons new vids (Aki Sasaki, Ian Hanasaki, Nozomi Mikimoto, Rena Fukiishi, Kaori Maeda); but now Nao Wakanana and Naomi who turn to freelance are releasing few vids

 

[paparoach408]

Predicting who will break out is crazy difficult. Used to be big tits is pretty strong asset, or celeb status, now no long guarantees. Other factors such as "good performer" is even harder to predict success.

So... actually, from one year ago, did anyone picked even one winner?

depends on how you define winning, kinda hard to do that in JAV because there are two different levels the contract girls, and the freelance ones

 

[ding73ding]

depends on how you define winning, kinda hard to do that in JAV because there are two different levels the contract girls, and the freelance ones

Yes i know where u r going. It's hard to be precise or objective about this and most topics on here. But then it become pointless to join this topic or even the whole forum.

So maybe it's hard to give a consensus definition of winner, at least we can agree what is not a winner and some markers of undisputed and maybe someone can hold up a borderline case and we can debate it (I mean, her).

So a quitter is not a winner. Won't be surprised if a few the girls in this thread had zero vids for Q4 of 2017 and first 2 months of 2018.

A contract status is probably good enough for a winner... I don't feel like holding too high a standard. Was there even one?

Ok freelancer could also count if she has steady monthly solo vids. Preferably at least 1 solo vid with a mainstream studio per quarter or half year.

Point is, I have zero faith in myself to pick winners out of debutantes or low rank idols. I was negative on Yua Mikami and neutral on Shoko at their debuts and couldn't be more wrong. I had liked a few debutante and wrong about them too. So my habit now is to wait for new comers to establish themselves and if I like them, to go back and watch their early vids as if seeing a true fresh face.

If someone can pick winners here, I 'd sure to be following him.

 

[ding73ding]

Hah I see the problem there. In the other thread you put An Tsujimoto in the "predicted/hoping to blow up" category. But in my view, she's already a contract girl with a top studio, she has steady monthly solo vids, she has blown up already. So if 12 months later she is still where she is, would you call her a winner or loser?

Looking back... can anyone point out even one idol who had been in the industry for more than 18 months but in a low profile status. And then for whatever reason became a much bigger star than she was during her first 18 months?

I can't think of one. Every big star (no matter if I like her or not) reached her star status (perhaps even peak status) within 12 months. The only upgrade that might be possible was she was low profile unsteady (2-4 vids a year) and become low profile steady (10-12 vids a year). The other reliable pattern is a senior idol would suddenly triple or quadruple her releases but that's pretty much guaranteed she will retire in 6 months.

So... I think investing hope in 2+ year veterans is ... hopeless.

So hows about picking winners out of debutantes?

 

[Supmop]

So hows about picking winners out of debutantes?

for me, winners from debutantes are freelancer who release many vids, I'm aware some people might say quality over quantity, but from what I see almost all vids from contract girls are not really good ... equal with what freelancers did

 

[paparoach408]

Hah I see the problem there. In the other thread you put An Tsujimoto in the "predicted/hoping to blow up" category. But in my view, she's already a contract girl with a top studio, she has steady monthly solo vids, she has blown up already. So if 12 months later she is still where she is, would you call her a winner or loser?

Looking back... can anyone point out even one idol who had been in the industry for more than 18 months but in a low profile status. And then for whatever reason became a much bigger star than she was during her first 18 months?

I can't think of one. Every big star (no matter if I like her or not) reached her star status (perhaps even peak status) within 12 months. The only upgrade that might be possible was she was low profile unsteady (2-4 vids a year) and become low profile steady (10-12 vids a year). The other reliable pattern is a senior idol would suddenly triple or quadruple her releases but that's pretty much guaranteed she will retire in 6 months.

So... I think investing hope in 2+ year veterans is ... hopeless.

So hows about picking winners out of debutantes?

So personally i don't really care if someone is a contract girl or not, I just see girls, girls with potential, and stars. An Tsujimoto is one of those girls I see with a lot of potential who can possibly be built up into a star, and There are 4 levels of Stars I see, the Sora Aoi(the princess type superstar) kind, The Maria Ozawa(the do everything) kind, the Tsubomi/Yui Hatano(do almost everything, reliable, with a long career), or Sasa Handa(the girl next door type contract girl is the best way I can explain it) kind im not saying any will reach those levels but they are the ceiling. An Tsujimoto I see being a Sasa Handa type star, and right now she isn't there but if she stays in the industry she could push to that point. Picking winners from debuts is tough because you really need to wait like 6 months to see if they stick around or not, and there's like 15 debuts a month it just gets tough to follow

for me, winners from debutantes are freelancer who release many vids, I'm aware some people might say quality over quantity, but from what I see almost all vids from contract girls are not really good ... equal with what freelancers did

my main issue with quantity is it just gets boring, like the later days of Ai Uehara(before she announced her retirement) she had something special about her, but she was pumping out like 20 videos a month, and that aura faded, like my main issue with western porn, you finally do anal and then every video after that there's anal, never any balance just anal, anal, anal so the specialty of it is meh

 

[Supmop]

my main issue with quantity is it just gets boring, like the later days of Ai Uehara(before she announced her retirement) she had something special about her, but she was pumping out like 20 videos a month, and that aura faded, like my main issue with western porn, you finally do anal and then every video after that there's anal, never any balance just anal, anal, anal so the specialty of it is meh

yes I truly understand that

contracl girls are doing vanilla only, for me I get boring more quickly

 

[ding73ding]

Hmm then we are really going in different directions. The topic is "Who Will Blow Up/Dominate in 20xx?" I take that to mean some kind of mix of commercial success (sales ranking), industry prestige (awards, spokesperson jobs, top billings on company websites) and fan love (search ranking, # of tweeter followers, lots of well-attended fan events).

But seems you guys are twisting the question to "Who will become my personal fav AV star?" If you talk about unfulfilled potentials, you know who's my nomination without me saying it (4-letters).

One of my top fav is Aimi Yoshikawa. But objectively she's not a star, not even your Sasa Handa level. I like Aimi very much, I don't know why she's a fail in the industry, but she is. There are quite a few current and past idols who can be said dominating. Say for example, Ai Uehara. I just couldn't make myself like her that much. But no matter how much I didn't like her doesn't affect that she was a star, a top star. It's objectively true.

 

[Supmop]

Hmm then we are really going in different directions. The topic is "Who Will Blow Up/Dominate in 20xx?" I take that to mean some kind of mix of commercial success (sales ranking), industry prestige (awards, spokesperson jobs, top billings on company websites) and fan love (search ranking, # of tweeter followers, lots of well-attended fan events).

But seems you guys are twisting the question to "Who will become my personal fav AV star?" If you talk about unfulfilled potentials, you know who's my nomination without me saying it (4-letters).

One of my top fav is Aimi Yoshikawa. But objectively she's not a star, not even your Sasa Handa level. I like Aimi very much, I don't know why she's a fail in the industry, but she is. There are quite a few current and past idols who can be said dominating. Say for example, Ai Uehara. I just couldn't make myself like her that much. But no matter how much I didn't like her doesn't affect that she was a star, a top star. It's objectively true.

like usually this kind of question will get answer : "Who will become my personal fav AV star", people with give answer / opinion base on personal opininon / taste

 

[paparoach408]

Hmm then we are really going in different directions. The topic is "Who Will Blow Up/Dominate in 20xx?" I take that to mean some kind of mix of commercial success (sales ranking), industry prestige (awards, spokesperson jobs, top billings on company websites) and fan love (search ranking, # of tweeter followers, lots of well-attended fan events).

But seems you guys are twisting the question to "Who will become my personal fav AV star?" If you talk about unfulfilled potentials, you know who's my nomination without me saying it (4-letters).

One of my top fav is Aimi Yoshikawa. But objectively she's not a star, not even your Sasa Handa level. I like Aimi very much, I don't know why she's a fail in the industry, but she is. There are quite a few current and past idols who can be said dominating. Say for example, Ai Uehara. I just couldn't make myself like her that much. But no matter how much I didn't like her doesn't affect that she was a star, a top star. It's objectively true.

it might come off as sounding like i'm looking for new personal favorites but it's not, I like them already and by reaching that potential then they'll reach those Sales, Rankings, awards, etc and in my 2017 list the ones I thought would blow up and reach higher sales, and win awards didn't happen.

I'm also disappointed Aimi failed, her and Mao Hamasaki where probably my two biggest disappointments of the past year, I think Aimi just moved up the ladder to fast, like from SOD, to S1, to being the face of TeamZero in 2 years, those where her big money breaks and she probably hasn't been able to reach those financal success ever since, she's just faded to the background and just do other stuff

 

[BDrake]

it might come off as sounding like i'm looking for new personal favorites but it's not, I like them already and by reaching that potential then they'll reach those Sales, Rankings, awards, etc and in my 2017 list the ones I thought would blow up and reach higher sales, and win awards didn't happen.

I'm also disappointed Aimi failed, her and Mao Hamasaki where probably my two biggest disappointments of the past year, I think Aimi just moved up the ladder to fast, like from SOD, to S1, to being the face of TeamZero in 2 years, those where her big money breaks and she probably hasn't been able to reach those financal success ever since, she's just faded to the background and just do other stuff

Mao is hanging in there a little bit. I have grown to like her a lot over the past two years. She is really talented.
Aimi is beautiful, but I do not think she is that talented. She just started using her hips last year. Her BJs are still mediocre.